Salary-cap deep dive: Nashville Predators

Forsberg’s contract situation garnered some attention recently when he suggested that his intent is to play out his deal and then decide what he wants to do from there. That’s not ideal for the Predators. As a franchise player, they’re going to want to know his intentions to know whether or not they’ll be moving him in the coming months. From a next contract standpoint, he’s in line to get a bit more than his current AAV but, barring a big 2021-22 season, it won’t be a substantial jump.  Gabriel Landeskog’s deal in Colorado (eight years, $7M AAV) feels like the type of deal Forsberg might want to target if he’s looking to do a max-term contract.

Kunin’s first season with Nashville was similar to his last one with Minnesota – there were flashes of offensive upside and times when he struggled offensively. At this point, it’s unlikely the two sides could find middle ground on a long-term commitment. The more likely scenario is that they let the season play out to give them a better idea of what’s to come. A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible and gives him a small raise is certainly a viable option.  

Grimaldi wasn’t really able to duplicate his 2019-20 performance and is more of an in-and-out depth player. His next deal could be cut in half accordingly. 

Cousins is a steady fourth liner that can move up when needed and while there is definitely a need for that around the league, it’s a spot on the depth chart where teams are trying to save. His next contract should come at a similar price tag as a result. 

Trenin was a decent fourth liner last season and should have a similar role this year. He’s arbitration-eligible but with a limited track record, it shouldn’t play much of a role. He could crack the $1M mark but not by much more unless he moves up the depth chart.

Borowiecki missed time last season due to a concussion as well as some mental health struggles and when he was in Nashville’s lineup, he had a very limited role. Unless he’s able to lock down some more ice time, he’ll be hard-pressed to get the same money on the open market next summer.  

Benning stepped in nicely on the third pairing last season with an uptick in ice time. At this point, he’s still young enough to be viewed as a late-bloomer so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a small raise next summer even though he didn’t fare well in his first trip in free agency in 2020.  

Harpur cleared waivers at the start of last season and frequently bounced back and forth between the NHL roster and the taxi squad. However, he managed to play a regular role in the second half of the season. He has bounced around so far and is better off as a depth player so it’s unlikely he’ll command much more money next summer.

Two Years Remaining

D Dante Fabbro ($2.4M, RFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55M, RFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($750K, RFA)

Olivier brought some energy to the fourth line last season, earning this one-way deal as a result. Unless he can work his way into a regular spot though, he’s someone that should stay close to the minimum.

Myers was the centerpiece of the Ellis trade but is coming off a disappointing season with Philadelphia. He’ll have the chance to rebound while playing a significant role with the Preds. Assuming he does well in a top-four role, he’ll be in good shape to land a long-term contract in 2023 well beyond his $3.06M qualifying offer.  

Fabbro’s sophomore campaign wasn’t the best either which put him squarely in bridge contract territory this summer, one that he should be able to easily outperform.

Three Years Remaining

F Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45M, RFA)

This was one of the more surprising contracts of the summer as it's viewed as relatively cheap. Granted, Tolvanen doesn’t have a lot of NHL success under his belt but as a first-round pick in 2017, there’s still some upside. Nashville wants to feature him in a bigger role this season and there’s a very good chance that this will wind up being a very team-friendly deal while still keeping him under team control at the end of it.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8M through 2025-26)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75M in 2021-22; $6.25MM through 2025-26)
F Mikael Granlund ($5M through 2024-25)
F Ryan Johansen ($8M through 2024-25)
D Roman Josi ($9.059M through 2027-28)
G Juuse Saros ($5M through 2024-25)
F Colton Sissons ($2.857M through 2025-26)

The Predators sent Seth Jones to Columbus to land Johansen in 2016, then signed him to this contract a year later thinking they had their center of the future. That didn’t happen and Johansen has been more of a secondary scorer the last couple of years.  

As a result, they added Duchene and unfortunately for the team, history basically repeated itself. Both players are on deals that are now well above market value and Nashville will be hard-pressed to get out of these contracts while getting any sort of value in return.  

Granlund had to settle for a one-year deal last season but did better this time around. Based on his recent performance, it’s a small overpayment but a bounce-back season is certainly realistic which would improve their value on the deal. 

Sissons is a valuable role player whose production is on the lower end. The AAV is a little on the high side but they clearly wanted him locked up for the long haul and they have the cap space to absorb the premium.

Josi was one of the top bargains in the NHL for several years before this deal brought him back to market value. He’s a legitimate top defender and based on the way the market went this summer, it’s a fair price for a player who figures to be a fixture moving forward.  

The same can be said for Ekholm who is on a bargain deal this season before his recently-signed extension kicks in next year. He has been their number two rearguard in recent years and $6.25M for that role is certainly fair value compared some of the other contracts that have been signed.

Saros is now the undisputed starter in goal with Pekka Rinne hanging up his skates. He was already easing into that role but the fact they still platooned for large parts of the last two seasons helped keep the price tag for Saros down. He’s right at the median mark in terms of cost for starting goalies and with how he played last year, he’s certainly in the top half of starters league-wide. This should be another team-friendly contract to help offset those of Johansen and Duchene.

Buyouts

D Steven Santini ($275K in 2021-22)
F Kyle Turris ($2M per year through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Tolvanen
Worst Value: Duchene

Looking Ahead

From a salary cap perspective, it’s pretty much smooth sailing for the Preds for the foreseeable future. Unless they’re operating under a stricter budget, GM David Poile should have plenty of wiggle room to commit to a long-term extension to Forsberg and try to add some pieces if they want to try to quickly emerge from this reset they seem to be undergoing. And if they go the other way into more of a pure rebuild, then cap space won’t be an issue for a while.