Buffalo Sabres right wing Tage Thompson (72). Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

NHL bets: Two props for Wednesday, Feb. 21

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 2/21/24

We're sticking in the player prop market for the NHL action tonight, with two looks from the early slate at simply superb odds.

Tage Thompson 4+ shots (-108 FanDuel)

Sabres vs. Canadiens, 7 p.m. ET

I am incredibly surprised to see this as the price for Tage Thompson's shots tonight. For those who joined me on Twitter Monday, we got a bit greedy with Tage 5+ shots, but no need to go there here with these odds we're getting on him hitting four or more.

Montreal is allowing 35.4 shots per game at home over the past month and a half, and Buffalo as a team is averaging around 33 shots on the road. That suggests to me plenty of Sabres SOGs, and they've typically poured it on when they square off against the Habs.

The kicker for me is that no team has been committing more penalties in the last month than Montreal. Thompson is Buffalo's power-play shot leader, and should he see the 3-4 PPs that feel likely, that would most definitely help push him forward on this prop.

Thompson has 4+ shots in five of his last six games and four of his last five meetings with the Canadiens.

Nick Foligno point (+110 DraftKings)

Flyers vs. Blackhawks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Initially my intention today was to target Connor Bedard, as the rookie is rolling since his return, piling up six points in three games.

However, with a -150 price on his point, a natural pivot that seems to make a lot of sense is to turn to linemate Nick Foligno to get involved in any goals produced from Bedard.

Foligno has been steady since the All-Star break, with a point in six straight games (seven total). That includes five straight at home, where Chicago skates tonight.

On paper, Philadelphia may not be a team to target for goal scoring, but Samuel Ersson has been struggling in net of late, allowing 12 goals in his past three games. Ersson is expected to start, but not yet confirmed, if you'd rather wait for confirmation on that front.

Here's hoping Connor Bedard keeps rolling and that Foligno alongside him stays in the mix.

Nobody digs in the corners for picks on pucks like YB's Griffin Carroll. Follow him at griffybets.substack.com for NHL data, trends and targets.

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