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NHL best bets: Two SOG props from Isles-Jets for Wednesday 2/22

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 2/22/23

We're keeping it simple tonight in the NHL. Two SOG props, both at plus-money. It's a volume market, and we've found two of the best in that regard.

Kyle Connor over 3.5 SOG (+102 FD)

We start with Kyle Connor and the Winnipeg end. I'm inclined to target the Islanders here for shots seeing as they've allowed 32.1 shots per game at home over their last 10. Five straight visiting teams have notched 32+ shots at UBS Arena, with a few monster shot efforts sprinkled in there.

The Jets average about 31 shots per game as a team on the road, which is right in the sweet spot for me to consider a team a viable target, and we go back to a familiar face here in Kyle Connor. Connor is a big reason why Winnipeg has respectable shot volume away from home, averaging 5.13 SOG/game on 8.25 attempts/game over his last eight on road ice.

Connor is the clear volume leader on the road, and he's delivering shots on goal covers because of it. When handed the right situation, I will continue riding this streak, especially at this price.

Brock Nelson over 3.5 SOG (+132 FD)

We stick in this game but look to the New York end in Brock Nelson. At this point my approach has probably become clear: I am a sucker for seeing shot volume, regardless of consistency.

Luckily for us, Nelson is sporting a bit of both here on home ice. Over his last five, Nelson is averaging 4.2 SOG/game on 7.0 attempts/game, going over tonight's 3.5 line three times. Curiously, each time he hits he's landed on five, so not the worst guy to ladder today.

Winnipeg is fresh off allowing 51 shots, and the hope here is that those leaks sprung at MSG on Monday rear their ugly head again tonight. I looked back on the past few opponents to face Winnipeg, and there's been a steady stream of opposing star forwards covering their shots on goal line.

There are plenty of intriguing options on this Islanders offense, namely Bo Horvat and Anders Lee, but Nelson is the motor. He has racked up 15 SOG and three goals in his last four meetings with Winnipeg, so here's to another nice outing.

At the end of the day, I'm just a guy trying to follow volume in matchups I like for shots, and when the best volume I see comes with a +132 price tag, I'm biting.

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