Maple Leafs 10 UFAs: Who’s Back? Who’s Not? 

Making matters worse for Bunting’s return to the Maple Leafs was the emergence of Matthews Knies when he joined the team. Knies appears to be able to bring the same tenacity and physicality as Bunting for a fraction of the potential cost. The biggest question with Knies is, can he produce at a similar rate as Bunting?

Player Two: Alex Kerfoot

While Kerfoot hasn’t produced offence at the same rate as Bunting over the past two seasons, he is regarded as a much more complete player. He is defensively much stronger, which is demonstrated by the 270+ minutes Kerfoot has played on the PK the last two seasons to Bunting’s two minutes. 

Bunting seems to be a one-trick pony, providing tenacity in a top-six role and complementing skilled players. Kerfoot, while not being as rambunctious as Bunting, can also be a support player in a top-six role. He is also quite capable of centring the third or fourth lines. 

Kerfoot is the utility knife type of player that coaches love. At the age of 29 and coming off of a contract that saw him earn $3.5 million a season over the past four years, on the open market, we could see Kerfoot command a similar type of deal this summer. In addition, he could possibly get a raise.

Similar to Bunting, we can’t see the Maple Leafs being willing to pony up that kind of money to keep Kerfoot. Calle Janrkrok is a player built in the same mould as Kerfoot. He battled Kerfoot for a top fix winger’s role most of the season and outproduced Kerfoot in the process (20 goals and 39 points for Janrkrok; 10 goals and 32 points for Kerfoot). Dubas signed Jarnkrok to a four-year, $2.1 million per season deal. Just as Knies can be looked at to take Bunting’s spot on the roster, Janrkrok could easily take Kerfoot’s. 

Player Three: Justin Holl

Justin Holl is a difficult player to figure out. On the one hand, he has a difficult time remaining a full-time player. On the other hand, when he plays, he usually plays a lot. He averages over 20 minutes a game. He led all Maple Leafs with 245 minutes in the PK, which was a full 70 minutes more than the next-highest defenseman on the team, Mark Giordano. He was also second on the team in blocked shots with 139, second only to Giordano, who had 147.

On the open market, Holl would most likely earn a decent raise on his present $2 million per season salary. 

Holl has stated publicly he would like to remain with the Maple Leafs. For that to happen, he would most likely have to sign for no more than his present salary and for a short term. The Maple Leafs also have four defensemen signed for next season that can play the right side, T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren, and Conor Timmins.  

While there is an outside chance the Maple Leafs could make an effort to extend Holl, we don’t think they will. 

Player Four: David Kampf

This one is a tough one to call. Since he signed a two-year $1.5 million per season deal with the Maple Leafs in 2019, Kampf has been a workhorse for the Maple Leafs. He has been given a steady stream of tough defensive starts (over 75% of his shifts began in the defensive zone) and has scored 18 goals and 53 points over the two seasons. He is a plus on faceoffs at 52%. He is also second on the team for time on ice (TOI) on the PK at 245 minutes.  

We are sure, even with a different GM other than Dubas, that the Maple Leafs would love to have Kampf back. But, it might cost a lot more than the $1.5 million Kampf signed for on his last deal. As a UFA, Kampf could possibly command a salary twice that. 

If he wants to stay with the Maple Leafs, we are sure Treliving will try to make it happen.

Player Five: Ryan O’Reilly

Who Ryan O’Reilly plays for next season will be totally up to O’Reilly. As a UFA, even at the age of 32, there is a team out there that might be willing to pay the former Selke and Conn Smythe winner $5+ million over four or five years. If he decides to stay in Toronto and accept a million or so less for a shorter term, I can see the Maple Leafs being willing to re-sign him. That would be especially true if the team moved one of its core players. 

When O’Reilly is properly motivated and happy, he can still be a force on the ice. The regular season can be an up-and-down grind for him; but, when it comes playoff time you can be sure he will be ready to go. He also seemed to have great chemistry with John Tavares. What a benefit that would be for the team to keep Tavares producing as he has.

Similarly to Kampf, if O’Reilly truly wants to stay with the Maple Leafs, he likely will be back. It will be up to him. 

The Bottom Line

Here’s how we see the first five UFAs on our list.

First, Bunting, despite his tenacity, is unlikely to be re-signed due to financial constraints and the emergence of promising prospect Matthews Knies. Second, Kerfoot, who’s a more well-rounded player, could also be let go given the presence of Calle Jarnkrok as a suitable replacement. Third, Holl, who’s a defenseman with valuable penalty-killing and shot-blocking skills, might stay with the Maple Leafs but would need to accept a short-term deal at his current salary.

Fourth, Kampf, who’s a reliable defensive forward, has been a workhorse for the team; however, his price tag as a UFA might exceed what the Maple Leafs are willing to pay. Finally, O’Reilly’s future depends on his own preferences. He might have opportunities elsewhere, but the Maple Leafs could re-sign him if he’s willing to accept a shorter-term, slightly reduced contract.

Ultimately, decisions about these UFAs will depend on financial considerations, roster needs, and the team’s new overall strategy. Right now, only Treliving knows what that might be. For sure, he has to balance the team’s competitiveness and manage the salary cap effectively at the same time.

Right now, we’re not certain how easy that will be.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs’ fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]