Exploring a potential William Nylander extension

The 2014 eighth-overall pick silenced most doubters last season with a career-best regular season and equally impressive playoff performance. He surpassed the 40-goal mark for the first time in his NHL career and tied for second on the team in playoff scoring with four goals. Despite a subpar reputation defensively in one-on-one situations, he’s consistently maintained strong face-off value and relative possession numbers, a trend that held true in 2022-23. It’s fair to say what we’re seeing now is peak Nylander, as the winger is now 27 years old and has eight seasons and over 500 games of experience under his belt. After back-to-back 80-plus point years, he’s cemented his status as a first-line caliber winger stuck at second on his team’s depth chart behind Mitch Marner.

Statistics

2022-23: 82 GP, 40 G, 47 A, 87 pts, +10 rating, 28 PIMs, 293 shots, 18:33 ATOI, 52.5% CF
Career: 521 GP, 177 G, 253 A, 430 pts, +23 rating, 134 PIMs, 1,441 shots, 17:10 ATOI, 53.8% CF

The Market

With Matthews and Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos surely set to extend with their current teams, Nylander has a legitimate claim as the best pending UFA with a real potential of hitting the market. That’s something he’s sure to use to his advantage in extension talks with Toronto, and with this being his big opportunity to cash in, he has no intentions of accepting a discount on a long-term deal. What Toronto won’t give him, he’ll try to find somewhere else.

It sets him up well to earn the eight-figure deal he desires, whether in Canada’s largest city or with another team. He’s likely to be money in the bank for at least 30 goals and 80 points for at least the next five to six years, assuming he stays healthy, and a rich deal like this has the rare potential to be a bargain halfway through with the pace the salary cap’s Upper Limit is expected to rise. The latter factor is one that may influence Treliving to become comfortable with the idea of committing $10M to a fourth player in 2024-25, although it’ll still be an incredibly difficult fit under the cap. That being said, John Tavares’ $11M AAV deal expires in 2025, which will make it a one-season crunch if they do opt for an extension.

Comparable Contracts

Filip Forsberg (Nashville) – signed an eight-year deal worth $68M ($8.5M AAV) just a few days before the free agency opened last season. It worked out to 10.3% of the salary cap at that time, which would translate to a $9M cap hit for Nylander assuming an Upper Limit of $87.5M when the extension kicks in. This will be Toronto’s biggest sticking point in negotiations – Forsberg was coming off an even better season than Nylander (42 goals, 84 points in 69 games), had more games played than Nylander aand had scored with more consistency throughout his career. Like Nylander, Forsberg could have likely gotten more on the open market.

David Pastrnak (Boston) – signed an eight-year, $90M contract extension ($11.25M AAV) with the Bruins amidst a 2022-23 season that saw him finish with a career-high 61 goals and 113 points, becoming the first 60-goal scorer not to win the league’s goal-scoring title since Jaromir Jagr in 1995-96. They’re totals he won’t likely replicate, but he’d still shown flashes of a higher offensive ceiling than Nylander, like his 48-goal, 95-point 2019-20 campaign, which was curtailed thanks to COVID in March. There is a sizable gap between his and Nylander’s market value, and given the recency of the extension, Pastrnak’s deal likely sets Nylander’s market cap around the $10M he’s pushing for.

Projected Contract

Given the above comparables, there’s a fair argument to be made that Nylander won’t quite net $10M on a seven-year deal if he becomes a free agent next summer. That’s not to say the Leafs will get what they desire on an extension, though.

In all likelihood, Nylander’s number on a max-term deal will start with a nine, which is above Toronto’s currently reported range of $8M-$9M. Unfortunately, meeting in the middle is not always commonplace for UFA negotiations, especially with a player on the age precipice of Nylander, who likely won’t have the opportunity for another high-paying, long-term deal after this one. He won’t have permission to speak to other teams about a deal, though. If Toronto does up their offer to something in the $9M range, and Nylander rejects it in hopes of getting eight figures per year on the open market, it could be a decision he regrets, especially considering he’s forfeiting a year of term by signing with another team.

Treliving does have to balance this with Matthews’ pending extension and an extension for Marner before the 2024-25 season draws to a close, although Tavares’ deal expiring alongside Marner’s will give Toronto some flexibility it hasn't had for a few summers now. Nylander will also likely be eyeing Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jake Guentzel’s extension situation as a more current/direct comparison for his own deal.