Examining the upcoming Winnipeg Jets roster crunch

Despite seeing some high-profile players depart their franchise this offseason, including former captain Blake Wheeler and second-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Winnipeg Jets have every intention of returning to the playoffs in 2023-24.

Although netminder Connor Hellebuyck’s name has appeared in trade rumors this summer, he currently appears more likely than not to begin the season in Winnipeg, meaning head coach Rick Bowness and his staff will have an elite goaltender behind them as they begin another contention-oriented season.

One area the Jets may still have to resolve this offseason is their defense. As things currently stand, the Jets not only have a point-per-game blue-liner in Josh Morrissey leading their group, but they also boast some impressive depth. The Jets have 10 defensemen under legitimate consideration for NHL jobs in the fall but are likely to only be able to keep seven or eight on their 23-man active roster.

This isn’t a situation for some of the Jets’ defensemen to worry about. Morrissey’s spot at the top of their lineup, for example, is assured. Seeing as they each make nearly $6M annually on their contracts, Nate Schmidt and Neal Pionk are unlikely to go anywhere given how hard it is to move money in today’s flat-cap environment.

The two 2024 unrestricted free agents, veterans Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo, are each possible candidates to be moved in theory, but in reality are likely staying put.

Each played an important role in the Jets’ 2022-23 success and it’s likely that if the Jets had designs on trading one of those two veterans the deal would have been completed already.

That makes five slots on the roster already spoken for, leaving two or three roster spots left to be claimed.

In contention for those spots is 24-year-old Dylan Samberg, who broke into the NHL and played 63 games last season, six-foot-seven 2016 first-round pick Logan Stanley, AHL star Declan Chisholm, veteran Kyle Capobianco, and 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola. At the outset, Samberg looks to be the overwhelming favorite to claim the sixth and final spot in Bowness’ opening-night lineup.

The Jets invested a second-round pick to draft Samberg in 2017 and he has developed at a steady rate since that point. He played three seasons of college hockey at the University of Minnesota-Duluth before turning pro in 2020-21.

He spent his rookie pro season as an AHL regular, the next year on the NHL/AHL bubble, and finally last season fully on the NHL roster. Samberg played as a penalty-killing specialist number-six defenseman last season, averaging just 14:55 TOI per game overall but 1:59 on the penalty kill, third-most among Jets blueliners.

With Samberg playing quite a bit short-handed the Jets had a top-ten penalty kill league-wide, so it stands to reason that the Jets would be interested in Samberg maintaining his regular role there in order to help ensure similar short-handed success next season. That leaves Heinola, Stanley, Capobianco, and Chisholm battling in training camp for one or two spots as a press box regular in Winnipeg.

That’s a position Capobianco, 25, occupied for all of last season. He only played in 14 games for Winnipeg but didn’t see a single minute in the AHL. He spent most of the season a healthy scratch, which suggests the Jets are more comfortable with a player like Capobianco regularly sitting out games than a higher-upside blueliner whose development the team may be more invested in. That could give Capobianco a leg up in retaining his NHL status for next season, though there are complicating factors.

One complicating factor is the presence of Stanley, a player who reportedly made a trade request back in March. Stanley’s requested trade has not materialized, and he could be in line to see his role on the Jets decline even further than it did in 2022-23. Stanley played 58 NHL games in 2021-22 but saw that number decline to just 19 this past season. Stanley hasn’t played in the AHL since 2019-20 and would need to clear waivers to be sent to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose.

As a player who offers rare size and has first-round pedigree, the Jets would not be blamed for hesitating to expose Stanley to waivers and risk losing him for nothing. But seeing as he has seemingly fallen out of favor in Winnipeg and may no longer be in their future plans, can the franchise justify Stanley claiming one of the NHL roster spots above another defenseman such as Heinola, Capobianco, or Chisholm?

Heinola remains waivers-exempt for another season, so despite headlines devoted to the player’s dissatisfaction with how scarce his chances to establish himself as an NHLer have been he remains the likeliest candidate to remain in the AHL to start another season.

Heinola is clearly an accomplished talent at that level (he scored 37 points in 48 games last season) but one wonders if yet another season playing AHL hockey is best for his development compared to being able to test himself against the fires of NHL competition.

Regardless, since Heinola is waivers-exempt it would in all likelihood take a trade or a stunning performance in preseason for Heinola to make the NHL roster out of camp, since Winnipeg would be promoting him at the cost of waiving another player.

That leaves Chisholm, 23, in the best position to threaten Capobianco and/or Stanley’s position in the NHL. Chisholm is no longer waivers-exempt and given his exemplary performance in the AHL (43 points in 59 games) he is a genuine candidate to be of interest to clubs high in the waiver priority.

The Jets drafted Chisholm in 2018 and have developed him in Manitoba for three seasons, meaning it would definitely sting to put all that work into growing a player only to see another NHL club reap the fruits of that labor during 2023-24.

The sting they’d feel would be almost identical to what the organization must have felt watching Johnathan Kovacevic carve out a spot as an NHL regular with the Montreal Canadiens last season. The Jets spent a 2017 third-round pick to draft Kovacevic and oversaw his development both in college and in the AHL for a half-decade.

The Jets’ extensive effort developing Kovacevic culminated in the franchise receiving two NHL games from Kovacevic before losing him on waivers. Because the team opted to roster other defencemen over Kovacevic, the Canadiens appear to have a quality defensive defensemen on their hands at a remarkably affordable $766k cap charge through 2024-25.

That’s a genuinely valuable asset to have, and the Jets are unlikely to want to put themselves in that position again, possibly handing another club a valuable defenseman for a second consecutive year. As a result, it seems the likeliest outcome is Capobianco is waived, Heinola is sent to the AHL, and both Stanley and Chisholm are rostered in the NHL.

But unless a trade is completed before opening night, the uncertainty of waivers will hang above the heads of Jets decision-makers as they ponder how to construct their NHL roster. If nothing else, the success of Chisholm and the presence of waivers will make the battle for the Jets’ final one or two defensive roster spots one of the most intriguing storylines to watch in the NHL preseason process.