A salary-cap deep dive into the Montreal Canadiens

Caufield’s next contract is shaping up to be an intriguing one already.  He recently reached 100 career NHL regular season appearances but has been one of the top goal-scorers in the league dating back to midway through last season.  If Montreal wants to sign him to a max-term agreement (which they likely do at this point), they’ll have to make him the highest-paid forward on the team (and in franchise history) while a bridge contract could run in the range of Jason Robertson’s $7.75M with Dallas.  Notably, he still is five years away from UFA eligibility so a four-year bridge deal (like Robertson’s) is a legitimate option for both sides to consider.  He’s on pace to reach all his ‘A’ bonuses.

Guhle hasn’t been eased into things in his rookie season, logging more than 20 minutes a night, often on the top pairing.  If he stays in that role, he’s likely to hit his two ‘A’ bonuses this season and if he continues there for the next couple of years, he’s someone GM Kent Hughes will likely want to try to lock up long term.  Harris, meanwhile, already is in line for a new deal after burning his first season down the stretch last year.  He’s likely heading for a bridge contract with an AAV likely checking in a bit below the $1.5M range while he’s on pace to hit his two ‘A’ bonuses and most of his ‘B’ ones for games played.  Xhekaj has gone from being an undrafted free agent signing a year ago to a regular in Montreal’s lineup on the third pairing.  Having burned the first year while playing in junior last season, he’ll be hard-pressed to command a long-term second deal and is likely heading for a bridge contract himself, potentially a little above the $1.5M mark if he remains a fixture on the third pair.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Paul Byron ($3.4M, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($5M, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5M, UFA)
F Sean Monahan ($6.375M, UFA)
F Michael Pezzetta ($750K, RFA)

Calgary had to pay a high price tag (a first-round pick in either 2024, 2025, or 2026) to dump the final year of Monahan’s deal, allowing them to sign Nazem Kadri in the process.  He has recovered well from the hip issues that plagued him over the last couple of years and is at his highest point-per-game pace since 2018-19.  As a capable defensive forward that can kill penalties and do well at the faceoff dot, it’s certainly not impossible to think that he could get some interest as a second-line center on the open market this summer.  If that happens, there’s a good chance that Monahan could land a contract similar to this one, a scenario that not many would have thought possible at this time a year ago.

Drouin hasn’t panned out as expected when Montreal sent Mikhail Sergachev (plus a conditional second-round pick that didn’t materialize) to Tampa Bay to secure him.  He has the skills to play in the top six but hasn’t been able to produce with consistency or stay in the lineup with any consistency.  He’s a prime candidate for a one-year pillow value elsewhere next season to try to rebuild some value in a new situation.  Dadonov was picked up from Vegas in exchange for Shea Weber’s LTIR contract with the Canadiens likely hoping that they could flip him with retention at the trade deadline.  Instead, he’s off to the worst start of his career offensively.  His next deal could be closer to the $2M mark if not a bit lower and at that point, it’s possible that he could look to return to the KHL if a significant offer materializes there.

Byron’s availability to play this season is in question as he continues to battle hip trouble.  If he’s able to play next year, Byron would be eligible for a one-year deal with incentives due to his injuries (even though he’s not 35); such a contract would likely have a base salary closer to $1M before bonuses.  Pezzetta is on his first career one-way contract and has had a limited role so far.  Assuming that continues, even with arbitration rights, it’s unlikely he’d be able to land more than $1M for next season.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Joel Edmundson ($3.5M, UFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($4.5M, UFA)
G Samuel Montembeault ($1M, UFA)
F Rem Pitlick ($1.1M, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($762.5K, UFA)

Hoffman was expected to help Montreal’s power play but that hasn’t been the case over his first year and a bit with the team to the point where he was scratched earlier this season.  He’ll need to produce with much more consistency in the back half of this deal to have a shot at matching this price tag in 2024.  Pitlick played well after coming to the Canadiens on waivers last season, earning this two-year deal, his first one-way pact.  However, some early struggles landed him on the waiver wire again this season where he passed through unclaimed.  Barring a change in his production, he’ll be in tough to match let alone beat this contract two summers from now.

Edmundson has battled injury trouble this season and last but when he has been in the lineup, he has been a dependable second-pairing option that can kill penalties and play physically.  There’s a ceiling for those types of players in terms of their earnings upside but a small raise closer to the $4M mark on a multi-year agreement could be doable if he’s able to stay healthy as he’ll hit the market at 31.  Wideman is on a minimum deal for the second straight season and has a very limited role.  In his second stint in the NHL, he’s more of a depth player so it’s likely that his next deal will also be close to the minimum salary.

Montembeault’s first full NHL season was a rocky one with Montreal struggling mightily last season.  That allowed the team to give him a low-cost two-year commitment that could be fully buried in the minors.  However, he’s off to a much better start this season and is starting to push for a little more playing time.  He’s making well below the league average for a backup and a decent showing the rest of the way this season and next could push him closer to the $1.75M range at least.  Otherwise, he might be looking at something closer to this deal, a lower-cost one-way pact on a cap-strapped team.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Jake Allen ($2.875M in 2022-23, $3.85M in 2023-24/2024-25, UFA)
F Joel Armia ($3.4M, UFA)
F Christian Dvorak ($4.45M, UFA)
F Jake Evans ($1.7M, UFA)
D Johnathan Kovacevic ($766.7K, UFA)
D David Savard ($3.5M, UFA)

Dvorak was acquired to replace Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the 2021 offseason with the hopes that he could become a legitimate second-line center.  That hasn’t happened yet.  Instead, he appears to be heading for another season around the 30-point mark.  His defensive game and faceoff ability give him some extra value but if this type of production is indeed his ceiling, he’s going to be in tough position to get more than this on the open market.  A similar contract is possible but even in a pricier cap environment, it’s hard to see him pushing for $5M.

Armia’s strong showing in Montreal’s improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final strengthened his market to the point where he was able to land this commitment.  Since then, he has 16 points in 76 games.  Armia can kill penalties but he’s more of a fourth liner that should have a price tag closer to half of his current one.  Evans had a strong year last season with 28 even-strength points in a bottom-six role but his playing time has been more limited this year.  If he can get back to pushing for 30 points in that lower spot on the depth chart, he could generate enough interest to push his AAV past the $2M mark in 2025.

Savard is playing a much bigger role than he was used to at the end of his time with Columbus (and a brief stint in Tampa Bay) as he sits second on the team in ATOI.  Right now, they’re getting some value for their buck but he’ll turn 35 early on his next deal and at that point, Savard will likely be best suited for a third-pairing role.  That should push his price tag down a little bit.  Kovacevic was claimed off waivers late in training camp and has played in most of Montreal’s games since then.  It’s still a bit early to forecast what’s next as he’s a late-bloomer rookie but if he plays more often than not on this deal, he could have a shot at doubling his AAV on the open market.  If Kovacevic turns into a full-time regular, the cost will only go up.

Allen has had some ups and downs since effectively taking over as the starter last season, a role he struggled with when he had it in St. Louis.  Even with the inconsistency, what he’s making now is well below market value for a starter and on his next contract, as long as he can hold down a regular spot in the platoon, Montreal should get a reasonable return on it as well.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Josh Anderson ($5.5M through 2026-27)
F Kirby Dach ($3.3625M through 2025-26, RFA)
F Brendan Gallagher ($6.5M through 2026-27)
D Mike Matheson ($4.875Mthrough 2025-26)
G Carey Price ($10.5M through 2025-26)
F Nick Suzuki ($7.875M through 2029-30)

A year ago, Suzuki’s deal looked like it might be an overpayment early on but he has since become a quality top-liner that has shown some chemistry with Caufield.  Montreal will be hard-pressed to use this contract as their high point for forwards but he’s a core piece of the puzzle that’s locked up on what could be a team-friendly deal within a short amount of time.  That’s not the case with Gallagher.  His extension seemed too pricey and too long when it was signed and his performance since then has only backed it up.  At this stage of his career, Gallagher is better off in a more limited role and that’s going to make it very difficult for him to produce at a level that’s commensurate with that price tag.  This has the potential to become an anchor contract and, as a result, he could be a buyout candidate down the road if his production continues to dip.

Anderson has only put up more than 32 points once in his career while only reaching 20 goals once as well.  At face value, this deal would thus appear to be an overpayment.  However, we know the premium that is given to power forwards and even as an above-market contract, it’s one that Montreal should be able to move.  Dach’s trade was an interesting one with Chicago rebuilding and, in theory, a 21-year-old center is the type of player that they’d typically want to keep.  However, they opted for a change of scenery and Montreal elected to do a longer bridge deal that still maintains his RFA eligibility at the end.  The early returns have been impressive although he’s on the wing now instead of playing down the middle.  How high his next contract goes will be dictated by whether he can produce consistently and if he can get back to being a regular center, his value will only go up from there.

Matheson was once viewed as a key cog of Florida’s future but later became a cap dump to Pittsburgh.  His value improved with Pittsburgh to the point where the Canadiens opted to pick him up in the Jeff Petry trade.  He’s at his best in more of a sheltered role and that’s not one he’s going to have on a back end that dresses at least three rookies a night.  If his offensive improvement holds and he becomes a dependable veteran whenever the Canadiens emerge from their rebuild, a small raise could be achievable.

Price’s playing future appears to be in serious jeopardy.  He didn’t play at all last season and isn’t expected to this year so he remains on LTIR.  Early retirement isn’t a realistic option as he’s still owed more than $23M in salary over the next three years so he’ll remain on LTIR until this deal runs out.

Buyouts

D Karl Alzner ($833K through 2023-24)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Allen
Worst Value: Gallagher

Looking Ahead

The Canadiens have enough LTIR flexibility to work with to make them a team to watch for closer to the trade deadline.  If they can’t find takers for some of their pricier expiring contracts, they still might be able to utilize their cap room in the form of being a third-party facilitator where they’d acquire a player and then immediately flip him with cap and salary retention as we’ve seen some teams do in recent years.

Turning to next season, Caufield will be in line for a significant raise but with some of their big-ticket expirings coming off the books, they’ll have room to afford it along with the seven-figure carryover bonus penalty that’s coming their way since they’ll finish the year over the cap and in LTIR.  They should also have a bit of flexibility to try to add another veteran piece if they’re ready to come out of their rebuild at that time.

From a longer-term perspective, Hughes will have his work cut out for him as several of their poorer-value contracts are on the books for a couple more years at a minimum.  Finding a way to move one or more of those out would certainly clear up their cap picture but with teams being less willing to take on pricey contracts now, that will be a task that’s much easier said than done.