Predicting Grover Stewart's Potential Colts Contract Extension

Since Chris Ballard took over as the general manager of the Colts in 2017, he has consistently preached about building in the trenches. Ballard has been a man of his word, shelling out some of the Colts' bigger free agent contracts to defensive tackles.

Here are the contracts Ballard has given out to defensive tackles in the seven offseasons he has been at the helm for the Colts:

• Taven Bryan (2023): One-year, $3.51 million deal
• Grover Stewart (2020): Three-year, $30.75 million deal
• Taylor Stallworth (2020): Two-year, $1.67 million deal
• Sheldon Day (2020): One-year, $1.75 million deal
• DeForest Buckner (2020): Four-year, $84 million deal
• Margus Hunt (2019): Two-year, $9 million deal
• Denico Autry (2018): Three-year, $17.8 million deal
• Johnathan Hankins (2017): Three-year, $27 million deal
• Al Woods (2017): Two-year, $4 million deal

While most of the deals have been for less than $5 million on an average annual value (AAV) basis, Ballard has paid good money for his starting defensive tackles. Buckner and Stewart ranked first and fifth, respectively, on the Colts in 2023 in AAV.

The big-money deals for defensive tackles have largely paid off for Ballard and the Colts. Hankins may have only been in Indy for one season, but Autry, Buckner, and Stewart have had sizeable impacts on the defensive line. Buckner has been arguably the best defensive player on the Colts' roster since 2020, with one First-Team All-Pro nod and two Pro Bowls.

Although Stewart has not reached those highs yet, Ballard knows how crucial he is to the Colts' defensive success. He made it known after the season that he wants Stewart back in 2024 and beyond.

"I think you know my feelings on Grover," Ballard said in January. "In my first year here, he was one of our first draft picks. He’s done nothing but be a great Colt, a great teammate, everything you want. Yeah, Grover is a guy we’d like to have back.”

The Colts would like to have Stewart back. The question is, how much is that going to cost?

Comparable Players to Stewart

When negotiations begin, teams and agents use other contracts around the league to help set the market for a potential deal. Stewart's negotiation will be no different, as his representatives at SportStars will handle the defensive tackle's new deal.

For a better idea of where Stewart's next contract may land, it is best to look at defensive tackles who compare to him in production, value to their team, and who have signed their deals within the last few seasons. The players most comparable to Stewart are Dalvin Tomlinson of the Cleveland Browns, D.J. Reader of the Cincinnati Bengals, David Onyemata of the Atlanta Falcons, and DaVon Hamilton of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

All four defenders serve as the primary nose tackle on their respective defensive lines and are the key cogs in the middle against the run. All but Reader received their deals before the 2023 season as well, meaning they accurately represent the nose tackle market.

When comparing the production of these four defenders to Stewart, here are each defensive tackle's total statistics for the two seasons before signing their extensions:

• Tomlinson (29 games): 81 tackles, six tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 17 QB hits
• Reader (31 games): 85 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 16 QB hits
• Onyemata (28 games): 77 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks, 21 QB hits
• Hamilton (33 games): 102 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, eight QB hits

The averages for these categories come to 30 games, 86 tackles, eight tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, and 16 QB hits. Over the last two seasons, Stewart has totaled 28 games, 111 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, and 15 QB hits. Stewart ranks first in tackles and tackles for loss, tied for third in sacks, and fourth in QB hits while tying for the least amount of games played.

After seeing how the defensive tackles stack up production-wise, here are the deals each received and their AAV:

• Tomlinson: Four-year, $57 million deal ($14.25 million AAV)
• Reader: Four-year, $53 million deal ($13.25 million AAV)
• Onyemata: Three-year, $35 million deal ($11.67 million AAV)
• Hamilton: Three-year, $34.5 million deal ($11.5 million AAV)

The past extensions given to these four give the Colts and Stewart's camp a ballpark to start negotiations. Both sides will likely make claims to drive the price in their favor, but as Ballard loves to say, "The market is what the market is."

Big Money for a Big Fella

Despite turning 30 during the 2023 season and missing six games due to suspension, Stewart will cash in on the second big-money deal of his career. Stewart is too important to the middle of the Colts defensive line for the team to let him walk away, and the big man is still at the top of his game.

After looking at the comparable players around the league and their deals, a realistic contract extension for Stewart would be a three-year, $43.5 million deal ($14.5 million AAV). The extension would make Stewart the 15th-highest-paid defensive tackle in terms of AAV and cement one of the longest-tenured Colts in the upper echelon of his position.

While Stewart is already 30 years old, he has shown no sign of slowing down. Without the suspension, Stewart would have likely surpassed all the comparable defensive tackles in every stat used. Defensive tackle is also a position that has historically allowed for a longer shelf-life, meaning a player like Stewart, who has never had troubles with injuries, could play well into his mid-30s. The Colts can also front-load the contract to protect themselves if Stewart's play begins to slip.

Stewart has become nearly irreplaceable for the Colts. The team struggled mightily in run defense when he was out this past season and was a much better unit when Stewart was on the field. With new defensive line coach Charlie Partridge now in the fold, the return of Stewart would be another huge boost to one of the most important units for Indy's future success.