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Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson (1). Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'TNF' Week 5: Best bets and preview for Commanders vs. Bears

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 10/5/23

If you thought Monday night's debacle between the New York Giants and the Seattle Seahawks was bad, just wait until you see which teams the NFL is trotting out on "Thursday Night Football" this week. That's right, the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears will kick off Week 5 on "TNF," and although we're not thrilled about the matchup, we can still find some winning bets in the slop.

Let's get into it.

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears betting breakdown

Betting odds: Commanders -6, over/under 44.5, Commanders -270 moneyline | Bears +220 moneyline

It's been a nightmare start to the season for the Bears and their die-hard fans. After a full offseason of optimism and hype, Chicago began the year 0-4 and already looks like the worst team in the NFL once again.

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As for the Commanders, they could be a possible NFC playoff team after their 2-2 start. Washington almost improved to 3-1 in Week 4 but fell just short to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime. If Sam Howell can limit his turnovers, this is a team that could finish with a winning record in 2023-24.

The Bears have struggled to defend the pass early in the season, and that should continue on "Thursday Night Football." Chicago has already ruled out defensive backs Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson, and safety Jaquan Brisker is listed as questionable. Look for Howell and the Commanders to attack this beat-up secondary early and often.

'Thursday Night Football' best bets

Over 44.5 (-108 DraftKings)

Primetime overs aren't normally the best investments, but it's hard to ignore all the signs pointing toward points in this matchup. The Bears are giving up the second-most points per game (34.3) in the NFL and the second-most yards per pass attempt (8.4). As if that wasn't bad already, Chicago may also be without three players in the defensive backfield on Thursday night.

Washington has proven it can score a ton of points against bad passing defenses, as it put up 35 against the Denver Broncos and 31 against the Eagles. This wager will come down to Justin Fields and the Bears' offense, which played its best game of the season last week. Fields threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns against the Broncos to lead Chicago to 28 points, its highest total of the season.

The Commanders defense can be beaten through the air, so we're hoping Field can replicate some of the success he enjoyed in Week 4.

Jahan Dotson over 3.5 receptions (-102 FanDuel)

Jahan Dotson hasn't popped yet this season with only 110 receiving yards through four games, but this is a perfect spot for his 2023 breakout.

Chicago's secondary is a black hole right now, so this Washington passing attack should be able to move the ball all game. Dotson saw a season-high nine targets against the Eagles in Week 4, and I think the Commanders will roll with a similar game script on Thursday night. This is setting up perfectly for Dotson's best game of the young season.

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