Black Monday: Predicting the fates of these eight head coaches

The final Sunday of the regular season is less than a week away, which means Black Monday is right around the corner. For those unfamiliar with the term, "Black Monday" refers to the first Monday after the regular season, as organizations across the league fire their current head coaches and begin turning towards the future. This is a results-based business, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter already reported that 7-10 coaches could be fired. So, which coaches will stay, and which ones will go?

Note: This list will only mention teams that have not yet fired their head coaches. By the nature of the title, interim head coaches will not be fired on Black Monday.

What Will Happen to These 8 Head Coaches on Black Monday?

Ron Rivera – Washington Commanders

Ron Rivera, a defensive-minded coach, is responsible for what could very well be the worst defense in football. This isn’t a case of not having talent, either — this is Rivera’s fourth season in Washington, so he’s had more than enough time to get the right pieces in place. At the end of the day, job security is tied to winning, and Rivera hasn’t delivered a winning season for the Washington Commanders since he first arrived back in 2020. Maybe Dan Snyder would tolerate this mediocrity, but the new ownership group demands better. Of all the potential firings on Black Monday, Rivera seems like the most likely candidate.

Robert Saleh – New York Jets

Robert Saleh has posted double-digit losses in all of his three seasons with the New York Jets. However, he’s also had Zach Wilson as his primary quarterback in each one of those seasons, and nobody could win with him. While Saleh deserves some part of the blame for sticking with Wilson, it’s not his fault that Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1. Additionally, while the offense has struggled, the defense has played remarkably well. Perhaps the Jets decide to fire Saleh on Black Monday, but he deserves one more year to show what he can do with a real quarterback.

Mike Vrabel – Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans' Super Bowl window has officially closed, as Mike Vrabel’s scheme was unable to compensate for the complete lack of talent on the roster. The Titans never found a way to replace A.J. Brown, and Derrick Henry is no longer capable of carrying an entire offense. Quite frankly, these issues have more to do with the general manager than Vrabel, as nobody would be able to get much out of this talentless roster. Maybe Vrabel was a product of Brown, Henry and a revived Ryan Tannehill, but he deserves another season to lead a rebuild. If there are no signs of hope at this point next year, then the Titans could fire him in 2025’s Black Monday.

Bill Belichick – New England Patriots

At his peak, Bill Belichick was the unrivaled best coach in football and one of the two biggest forces behind an unmatched 20-year stretch of dominance. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, and the eight-time Super Bowl champion could probably use a change of scenery. Owner Robert Kraft wouldn’t fire someone of Belichick’s pedigree on Black Monday, but don’t be surprised if he allows the coach to look for other openings across the league before agreeing to a trade.

Matt Eberflus – Chicago Bears

After a slow start to the season, the Chicago Bears have bounced back in the second half with a healthy Justin Fields. Matt Eberflus isn’t too big of a reason for this success, as his outdated scheme was a big reason for Chicago’s slow start in the first place. However, reports across the league believe that he will be back for another season. Whether or not this is the correct decision is yet to be determined, and we still don’t know if quarterback Justin Fields will be around, either.

Dennis Allen – New Orleans Saints

Dennis Allen failed spectacularly during his first stint as a head coach with the then-Oakland Raiders, and his past two seasons with the Saints have proven that wasn’t bad luck. Despite having the most talented roster in the NFL’s weakest division and the easiest schedule in football, New Orleans currently finds themselves sitting at 8-8, trailing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has the most dead money in football. This should be inexcusable, but reports across the league indicate that the Saints will not fire Dennis Allen on Black Monday. This seems like a strange choice, as coaches don’t often figure it out in their fifth year of running the show.

Arthur Smith – Atlanta Falcons

Arthur Smith is the guy who buys a brand-new car but refuses to use it because he prefers his beat-up 1996 Toyota Corolla. The Falcons might not have a quarterback, but they’re more talented than their 7-9 record would imply. A better coach would’ve guided this team to the playoffs, and the Falcons should start looking for that guy on Black Monday.

Brian Daboll – New York Giants

The New York Giants were unable to recapture the magic of their 2022 season, but it’s hard to blame Brian Daboll for that. Daniel Jones came back to Earth in a big way and missed a sizable chunk of the season with an injury. Despite being out of the playoff picture for basically the entire season, Daboll’s squad has fought hard throughout the season. That’s the sign of a good coach — all he has to do is improve the roster and find players capable of consistently winning at the NFL level.